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Objective@#To establish a prediction model of herpangina epidemic trend based on Baidu index and hand, foot and mouth disease, so as to provide insights into analyses of communicable disease epidemics with limited or missing surveillance data.@*Methods@#The incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Zhejiang Province during the period from the first week of 2015 through the 39th week of 2021 was retrieved from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention, and the Baidu index of hand, foot and mouth disease and herpangina was collected via the Baidu search engine during the same period. The correlation between the Baidu index and time series of hand, foot and mouth disease was examined using wavelet analysis. In addition, a random forest training model was created based on the Baidu index and incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease, and the fitting effectiveness was evaluated using the mean percentage error, while the Baidu index of herpangina was included in the model to predict the epidemic trend of herpangina during the study period.@*Results@#The Baidu index of herpangina and hand, foot and mouth disease, and the Baidu index and incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease all appeared two peaks at the 26th and 52th week. The phase difference was less than 0.1 week between the Baidu index and time series of hand, foot and mouth disease, and the mean percentage error of the training model was 13.07%, with high concordance between the predicted number and actual report number of cases with hand, foot and mouth disease. The numbers of herpangina cases were predicted to be 28 822, 27 341, 28 422, 51 782, 52 457 and 5 691 from 2015 to 2020, and there were totally 48 702 herpangina cases reported until the 39th week of 2021. Like hand, foot and mouth disease, the incidence of herpangina peaked between May and July.@*Conclusion@#The random forest training model based on the Baidu index and incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease is feasible to predict the epidemic trend of herpangina.
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Objective@#To investigate the epidemiological features of notifiable infectious diseases in Zhejiang Province in 2021, so as to provide the evidence for formulating infectious disease control measures.@*Methods@#The data pertaining to notifiable infectious diseases reported in Zhejiang Province in 2021 were retrieved from the Infectious Disease Surveillance System of China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. The incidence and mortality of notifiable infectious diseases in Zhejiang Province in 2021 were descriptively analyzed.@*Results@#Totally 29 types of notifiable infectious diseases with 396 623 cases and 391 deaths were reported in Zhejiang Province in 2021, with a reported incidence of 614.28/105 and a reported mortality of 0.605 6/105, respectively. There were 93 204 cases with class B notifiable infectious diseases, with a reported incidence rate of 144.35/105 and 303 419 cases with class C notifiable infectious diseases, with a reported incidence rate of 469.92/105; while no cases with class A notifiable infectious diseases were reported. Syphilis (39.45/105), tuberculosis (37.12/105), viral hepatitis (31.90/105) and gonorrhea (26.34/105) were the four most common class B notifiable infectious diseases, and AIDS (0.477 0/105) and pulmonary tuberculosis (0.116 2/105) were the two most deadly class B notifiable infectious diseases, while hand, foot and mouth disease (192.00/105), other infectious diarrhea (184.24/105) and influenza (86.45/105) were the three most common class C notifiable infectious diseases. According to the transmission route, intestinal and respiratory infectious diseases were the two most common infectious diseases, with reported incidence rates of 384.10/105 and 133.73/105, respectively; and according to the reported region, the highest incidence of class B notifiable infectious diseases was reported in Zhoushan and Ningbo cities, and the highest incidence of class C notifiable infectious diseases was reported in Ningbo City. Totally 1 101 COVID-19 cases were reported in Zhejiang Province in 2021, including 712 confirmed cases and 389 asymptomatic cases, and no deaths occurred.@*Conclusions@#The reported incidence of notifiable infectious diseases declined in Zhejiang Province in 2021 as compared to that prior to COVID-19 epidemics, with remarkable reductions in the incidence of respiratory and intestinal infectious diseases. The management of pulmonary tuberculosis, viral hepatitis and AIDS requires to be reinforced during the containment of COVID-19, to prevent the seasonable epidemic of influenza, hand, foot and mouth disease and other infectious diarrhea in Zhejiang Province.
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Objective@#To investigate the characteristics of public health emergencies and related information in schools of Zhejiang Province from 2012 to 2021, so as to provide insights into the management of public health risks in schools.@*Methods@#The public health emergencies and related information in schools of Zhejiang Province during the period from 2012 to 2021 were retrieved from the Public Health Emergency Management Information System of Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System. The type, temporal distribution and regional distribution of the events and the type of schools were analyzed, and the trends in disease attack rates were evaluated.@*Results@#A total of 1 284 public health emergencies and related information were reported in schools of Zhejiang Province from 2012 to 2021, accounting for 72.34% of all public health emergencies and related information, and a total of 40 562 cases were reported, accounting for 87.72% of all cases; no death was recorded. There were 1 276 infectious disease events reported, accounting for 99.38%, and norovirus enteritis (649 cases), varicella (281 cases), influenza (181 cases), hand, foot and mouth disease (94 cases) and mumps (22 cases) were predominant infectious diseases, accounting for 95.56% of all public health emergencies and related information in schools. The number of public health emergencies and related information in schools peaked during the period between March and June (361 events, 28.12% of all events) and the period between November and December each year from 2012 to 2021 (629 events, 48.99% of all events), and the events occurred across 11 cities of Zhejiang Province, with the largest number of events reported in Hangzhou City (507 events). In addition, there were 627, 328 and 242 events reported in primary schools, kindergartens, and middle schools, accounting for 93.22%, and the events predominantly occurred in city schools. Nevertheless, there were no significant changes in the trends for attack rates of norovirus enteritis, varicella, influenza and hand, foot and mouth disease and mumps in schools of Zhejiang Province from 2012 to 2021.@*Conclusions@#Norovirus enteritis, varicella, influenza, hand, foot and mouth disease and mumps were the predominant types of public health emergencies and related information in schools of Zhejiang Province from 2012 to 2021, and the largest number of events were reported in primary schools.
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Objective To analyze the spatial-temporal characteristic of the incidence of hepatitis E (HEV) in Zhejiang Province.Methods Data related to HEV cases in Zhejiang Province in 2015 were collected from the Infectious Disease Reporting Information System in the Information System of Disease Prevention and Control of China.The ArcGIS (10.0) was used to analyze the spatial autocorrelation,R software was used to explore the spatialtemporal-multicomponent of the incidence based on the epidemic component,autoregressive component and endemic component.Results There were 1 738 cases identified and the incidence of HEV in Zhejiang Province in 2015 was 3.16/105.There were obvious regional clustering of the cases (P ＜ 0.05),the northwest regional of Zhejiang had higher incidence of aggregation.The impact of the epidemic component was strong in most of the districts of Hangzhou Municipality,parts of Huzhou and Jiaxing Municipality.The impact of autoregressive component was strong in the main urban area of Hangzhou Municipality,Lin'an and Wenlin.The impact of endemic component was relatively lower and autoregressive component was the same in a whole area.Conclusion The spatial-temporal characteristic of the incidence of HEV in different areas are heterogeneous,it is suggested that the risk factors maybe different and targeted strategies should be taken to control the disease.
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Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of imported malaria in Zhejiang Province from 2007 to 2016,in order to provide a scientific basis for further improving the level of imported malaria control.Methods Data on malaria cases in Zhejiang Province from 2007 to 2016 were collected through the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention (CISDCP).Descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of the imported malaria cases reported (including time distribution,regional distribution and population distribution).Results A total of 1 298 imported malaria cases were reported in Zhejiang Province from 2007 to 2016,including 988 falciparum malaria cases,237 vivax malaria cases,45 ovale malaria cases,12 quartan malaria cases,7 mixed infection and 9 unclassified cases.Most cases were 20 to 49 years old,accounting for 82.43％ (1 070/1 298) of the total and the male to female ratio of the cases was 9.30:1.00.The main groups of imported malaria cases were labor export staff,accounted for 46.92％ (609/1 298);followed by business services,accounted for 38.91％ (505/1 298).The cases mainly distributed in Jinhua,Hangzhou,Wenzhou,Lishui and Taizhou,which accounted for 75.96％ (986/1 298) of the total.Totally 87.21％ (1 132/1 298) of cases were imported from Africa,and 12.63％ (164/1 298) were from Asian.Imported malaria cases were reported every month in the whole year without seasonal peaks.Conclusion Imported malaria cases in Zhejiang Province are given priority to with labor export and business services,so it is necessary to strengthen monitoring,diagnosis,and treatment of imported malaria cases among overseas workers and businessmen from the malaria prevalent areas in Africa and Asian countries.
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Objective To understand the distribution of the severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) in Zhejiang province,and predict the incidence and the probability of SFTS outbreak.Methods Based on the cases of SFTS from 2011-2015,software ArcGIS 10.0 was used to analyze the spatial distribution,Moran's I and Getis-Ord Gi were used to analyze the spatial autocorrelation.The incidence trend was explored by trend surface analysis,and the prediction was made by Kriging interpolation.Results The incidence of SFTS increased and the distribution expanded in Zhejiang from 2011 to 2015,the seasonal and the demographic characteristics of SFTS were similar to the previous research;there were regional clustering of the cases (P＜0.001);a downward trend was observed from northeast to southwest in terms of incidence of SFTS;the second-order disjunctive Kriging interpolation based on circular model and the indicator Kriging interpolation based on exponential model had higher prediction accuracy,the probabilities of outbreak in Anji,Daishan and Tiantai were high,the prediction deviation of inland was less than that of edge area.Conclusion The prediction of SFTS by Kriging interpolation had high accuracy,the incidence of SFTS was higher and the distribution of SFTS was larger than the results of surveillance,the risk areas for epidemic were Anji,Daishan,Ninghai,Tiantai,Sanmen and Linhai.
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Objective To understand the distribution of the severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) in Zhejiang province,and predict the incidence and the probability of SFTS outbreak.Methods Based on the cases of SFTS from 2011-2015,software ArcGIS 10.0 was used to analyze the spatial distribution,Moran's I and Getis-Ord Gi were used to analyze the spatial autocorrelation.The incidence trend was explored by trend surface analysis,and the prediction was made by Kriging interpolation.Results The incidence of SFTS increased and the distribution expanded in Zhejiang from 2011 to 2015,the seasonal and the demographic characteristics of SFTS were similar to the previous research;there were regional clustering of the cases (P＜0.001);a downward trend was observed from northeast to southwest in terms of incidence of SFTS;the second-order disjunctive Kriging interpolation based on circular model and the indicator Kriging interpolation based on exponential model had higher prediction accuracy,the probabilities of outbreak in Anji,Daishan and Tiantai were high,the prediction deviation of inland was less than that of edge area.Conclusion The prediction of SFTS by Kriging interpolation had high accuracy,the incidence of SFTS was higher and the distribution of SFTS was larger than the results of surveillance,the risk areas for epidemic were Anji,Daishan,Ninghai,Tiantai,Sanmen and Linhai.